Wayne Cadman & Associates

The “gradually” maturing investment cycle – what is the risk of a US recession?

The period since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has seemed unusual in the sense that periodic crises and post GFC caution prevented the global economy from overheating and excesses building, in turn preventing the return of the conventional economic cycle. Many of course concluded this was permanent and that inflation would never rise again (with talk of structural stagnation, the Amazon effect, etc).

Australian’s love affair with debt – how big is the risk?

If Australia has an Achille’s heal it’s the high and still rising level of household debt that has gone hand in hand with the surge in house prices relative to incomes. Whereas several comparable countries have seen their household debt to income ratios pull back a bit since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), this has not been the case in Australia.

The pullback in shares - seven reasons not to be too concerned

The recent share pullback has seen much coverage and generated much concern. Dr Shane Oliver offers seven considerations for investors.

The pros and cons of investment bonds

Investment bonds (also known as insurance or growth bonds) can be a tax-effective way to invest and save for the future. Find out more with AMP.

Correction time for shares?

2017 was unusual for US shares. While Japanese, European and Australian shares had decent corrections throughout the year of around 5 to 7%, the US share market as measured by the S&P 500 saw only very mild pullbacks of less than 3%.

Higher global inflation and higher bond yields – what’s the risk and implications for other assets?

Since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) there have been a few occasions when many feared inflation was about to rebound and push bond yields sharply higher only to see growth relapse and deflationary concerns dominate.

2018 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

2018 is likely to remain good for diversified investors. The investment cycle still favours growth assets over cash and bonds. But expect more volatile and constrained returns as US inflation starts to turn up.

5 steps to take control

Achieving financial independence doesn’t have to be complex. Five commonsense steps could help you enjoy the life you want to lead.

What is an ethical super fund?

Investing your super in an ethical way is a growing trend in Australia. Learn more about responsible and ethical super investment with AMP.

Are you eligible for school subsidies?

Get up to speed with the government subsidies you may be able to access before the kids go back to school. Browse by state and territory allowances.

Australians reveal their priority goals

Most Australians indicate their biggest life goal is a financial one, but many admit failing to plan is a roadblock.

Will you suffer from post-purchase blues this festive season?

A survey has revealed that around 90% of Aussies make impulse purchases. Find out how you can make your money go further with AMP.

Why cautious optimism is better for your investment health than perma pessimism

At the start of last year, with global and Australian shares down around 20% from their April/May 2015 highs, the big worry was that the global economy was going back into recession and that there will be another Global Financial Crisis (GFC).

Is Australia’s economy “built on shaky foundations” that are “about to collapse”?

The Chinese economy is not about to collapse and isn’t likely to be at “peak commodity demand”. The failure of the Australian economy to crash after the end of the commodity price boom and mining

Bubbles, busts, investor psychology…and bitcoin

Investment markets are driven by more than just fundamentals. Investor psychology plays a huge role and along with crowd psychology helps explain why asset prices go through periodic bubbles and busts.

How to have a budget friendly holiday this summer

Looking for a cheap holiday destination that won’t break the bank? Discover some of the best options both at home and abroad. Learn more today with AMP.

The medium term investment return remains constrained

A further fall in investment yields across most major asset classes points to a constrained medium term return outlook. For a diversified mix of assets, this has now fallen to around 6.5% on our projections.

China’s consumers swapping Christian Dior for campuses and kangaroos

Big-ticket acquisitions of Australian resources, office towers and luxury homes by Chinese corporates and billionaires are grabbing headlines.

What do Aussies do with their super?

Find out where and what retirees are investing and spending their superannuation money on, and how you can use your super money today.

Five great charts on investing for income (or cash flow)

The low interest rates of recent times along with periodic turmoil in investment markets has provided us with a reminder of the importance of the income (cash) flow or yield an investment provides.

Where are we in the global investment cycle and what's the risk of a 1987 style crash?

There is still little sign of the sort of excesses that precede major economic downturns and major bear markets suggesting that (although US shares are overdue a decent correction) we are still a fair way from the top in the investment cycle.

Will Australian house prices crash?

AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver shares 5 reasons why the Australian property market is more complicated than the crash calls suggest.

Aussie banks are OK but there’s better value overseas

Banks globally are better value than local banks for share market investors but our “big four” still don’t look overvalued, says Shane Oliver, AMP Capital head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist.

Estate planning: what’s involved?

Estate planning is about more than just making a will. Learn how to make sure you and your money are well looked after later in life.

How to make every cent count

Are you feeling the pinch? There are a couple of key principles you can follow to help improve your financial situation.

Why the $A could be heading lower

The Australian and US dollars could be set for a turn in fortunes, according to Shane Oliver, AMP Capital head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist.

7 ways to boost your super

Discover the many ways that you can boost your superannuation and reap the rewards in retirement. Learn more with AMP today.

The US Federal Reserve starts quantitative tightening

The Fed has confirmed it will start reducing its balance sheet by not reinvesting bonds up to set limits as they mature.

Don’t want to be retired and in debt?

Find out ways to help you boost your cash flow and avoid debt in retirement.

More Aussies retiring later in life

Increased life expectancy means more Aussies will need to retire later in life. Find out about the implications of this and the considerations you may need to make.

5 ways to a longer, healthier, happier life

The best ways to sustain your physical, mental and financial wellbeing are sometimes the simplest. Discover five key tips to happy and healthy ageing.

Another five great charts on investing

Here are another five great charts that help illuminate key aspects of investing: the importance of time in the market relative to timing.

What will spring serve up for first home buyers and upgraders?

Find out what lies ahead for the spring property market for first home buyers and upgraders from AMP Capital economist, Diana Mousina.

5 life insurance questions you’ve always wanted to ask

There are several questions people have about insurance. See what they are and what you can do! – AMP

The Australian economy bounces back - five reasons why some further pick up is likely

After another (weather related) soft patch in the March quarter, Australian economic growth bounced back in the June quarter with quarterly growth of 0.8%, up from 0.3%.

Most kids expect to stay at home until they're 30

See why more Aussies are choosing to live with their parents for longer.

What’s an annuity?

An annuity provides you with a guaranteed income in retirement, regardless of how markets perform. Check out the pros and cons.

Closing the deal as a first home buyer

You’ve made an offer on your first property, but you’re not home and hosed yet. Find out what you can expect in the final weeks before settlement.

Electricity is charging towards the future

Substantial changes in the way we use and generate electricity is disrupting our energy supply model, but according to a new AMP Capital paper, efficiency gains will unlock existing supply and throw up a host of new opportunities for investors.

5 ways to make your gap year attractive to employers

If you’re looking to turn your gap year into something employers will value, check out these five things worth taking note of.

Artificial intelligence and technological disruption to be the new normal

Artificial intelligence will stretch its tentacles across most parts of the investment process in the next few years, according to AMP Capital Investment Manager Global Equities Andy Gardner.

The Global Financial Crisis 10 years on- Lessons learned and can it happen again?

It seems momentous things happen in years ending in seven. Well, at least in the last 50 years starting with the “summer of love” in 1967 and the introduction of the Chevrolet Camaro.

Should I rent or buy a home?

Don't know whether to rent or buy a home? Check out the latest economic outlook to help you understand the benefits and downsides of both options.

How much super should I have at my age?

If you’re wondering whether your super is on track, compare it to others your age.

Should I pay off my student debt early?

Depending on your situation, there may be pros and cons to clearing your student debt before you have to. Here’s what you need to know!

What is the retirement age in Australia?

Understand the difference between retirement age and preservation age? See how they affect your ability to retire, and the options available to you.

The threat of war with North Korea- Implications for investors

Tensions with North Korea have been waxing and waning for decades now but in recent times the risks seem to have ramped up dramatically as its missile and nuclear weapon capabilities have increased. The current leader since 2011, Kim Jong Un, has launched more missiles than Kim Il Sung (leader 1948-1994) and Kim Jong Il (1994-2011) combined.

Opportunities come flowing down the pipeline

Global demand for natural gas is rising as the world’s population expands and developing markets industrialise. This demand is increasingly being met by vast discoveries of shale gas reserves in North America where advancing technology is enabling profitable recovery, even at ever lower global energy prices.

Aussie equities still remain a good long-term bet

Australian equities have been getting bad press with some investors warning they are significantly overvalued. The narrative goes that we’re in the midst of a housing bubble that will blow up and take the share market down with it.

Your 5-point action plan when faced with redundancy

If you or someone you know has recently been made redundant, check out our 5-point action plan for what to do next.

The Australian consumer outlook: more headwinds to come

The Australian retail environment remains in a tough position due to factors weighing on consumer demand along with discounting pressures from competitors.

Inequality- is it increasing? What's driving it? And what it means for economic growth and investors

The issue of rising inequality has seen increasing interest over the last year or so, particularly following the Brexit and Trump votes for which rising inequality was seen as a key driver.

Five great charts on investing

At its core, successful investing is simple, but we have a knack of making it look complex.

Beyond the budget

Six things to think about when organising your family finances.

Childcare is expensive, but not working costs more

The price of childcare may be a deterrent to working, but loss of income, super and other benefits may cost more.

2016-17 saw strong returns for investors - 5 reasons why returns are likely to be solid in 2017-18

Despite a lengthy list of worries including Brexit, Trump and messy Australian growth, the past financial year saw strong returns for diversified investors.

Investors should stick to long-term strategy despite volatility

Shane Oliver, Chief Economist and Head of Investment Strategy at AMP Capital, discusses global growth, rising interest rates, the mixed housing market and his top tips for investors over 2017.

Top tips when buying a property with your partner

Taking out a mortgage together means commitment and compromise. Find out what you and your partner should consider early on.

Millions but not all to benefit from 2017 super changes

Many Australians, in particular low-income earners, are set to benefit from the latest superannuation changes. See how new rules could impact you.

A new financial year - outlook and tips for investors in 2017/18

Is growth still in the forecast for the new financial year? Shane Oliver reveals his predictions

'Covert violence': The hidden cost of financial abuse

Economic abuse is recognised as a form of domestic violence in many, but not all, Australian states.

4 simple steps to picking the right diversified fund

Many diversified funds appear similar on the surface, but when you lift the hood, they’re poles apart. Evaluating diversified fund performance can be like comparing the proverbial ‘apples’ with ‘oranges’.

Don't be driven by short-term sentiment and emotion

Arguably, the most common fear holding an investor back from achieving a great return is a misunderstanding of what happens when markets fall (as they invariably do).

From goldilocks to taper tantrum 2.0 – a bit of turbulence hits markets. 3 reasons not to be fussed.

Central banks beyond the US are edging towards an exit from easy money. This is likely to cause bouts of volatility in shares and a rising trend in bond yields.

Global political risks one year on from Brexit – what have we learned?

Geopolitical issues create much interest, but as we saw over the last year starting with Brexit this doesn’t mean they’ll have a big negative impact on financial markets.

Can money buy happiness?

There is a happiness payoff when we spend money on certain things.

The Australian economy hits another rough patch - implications for investors

Due to the GFC and solid bond returns as bond yields fell to record lows, share returns have struggled at times versus bonds over the last decade.

AI is making the future harder to model

Advances in artificial intelligence and robotics will have significant implications for evolving economic systems.

The perils of forecasting and the need for a disciplined investment process

The increasing noise around global economies and investment markets since the global financial crisis highlights the need for investors to have a disciplined approach to investing.

The Trump bump and shares – short-term risks, but five reasons for optimism

The political scandal around President Trump is likely to speed up rather than stop his pro-business reforms.

Three reasons why the risks for the Australian dollar are still on the downside

The downtrend in the $A will likely resume as commodity prices remain subdued, the interest rate differential in favour of the $A narrows to zero and goes negative and as now-long speculative positions reverse.

The 2017-18 Australian Budget – pragmatism and fairness rule

The 2017-18 Budget has a welcome focus on housing affordability and infrastructure.

Australian housing affordability crisis – can government policies fix the problem?

The Federal government is expected to announce a broad housing package in its budget on 9 May.

Are shares offering enough of a risk premium over bonds? What about rising bond yields?

Due to the GFC and solid bond returns as bond yields fell to record lows, share returns have struggled at times versus bonds over the last decade.

3 key developments in markets over past month

Shane Oliver, Chief Economist and Head of Investment Strategy at AMP Capital discusses the key developments over the past month.

Planning your future